Goodwood 2025 Best Outsider Bets

Its that time of year again and for 5 days we are focused on trying to back the right horses at Goodwood.

The thing about Goodwood is, its not Royal Ascot. Its known for throwing up some absolute shocks and is an unforgiving racetrack to say the least. Let's take a look first at the draw bias.

Goodwood Draw Bias

Goodwood is known to be a track for those drawn low, as the bend is fairly unforgiving for those drawn on the far rail. However for 5f and 6f races these are run on a straight track which gives a fairer distribution, although still favouring those drawn low slightly.

It is the 7f or 8f round course race in which you need to be aware of the draw of these over the last 10 years low draws have won more than middle and high draws combined. To put this in perspective you are 3 times as likely to win from a low draw as a high draw.

Goodwood Field size

Field size in horse racing impacts the results. Small fields can be tactical affairs but big fields can have many hard luck stories and if the field splits you need to be on the correct side of the track. This obviously has an impact on the draw as the more horses the more unforgiving the draw so you'll want a horse with a low draw for a big field race.

Goodwood Pace

Front runners hold an obvious advantage at Goodwood as they are able to secure the rail and steal ground on the bend in a 7f or 8f race. That said pace can collapse so it can often be a safer bet to be on the horse who's prominent or midfield but in a low or middle position. Over a mile prominent runners from a low draw have a win rate of 13.21% compared to 3.6% for hold up horses.

Goodwood Most Successful Trainers in the Last 3 Years

Some trainers are simply better at certain tracks. So it can be wise to look at the trainers who actually have had previous success at Goodwood before assessing the horses chances.

Andrew Balding - 24 winners - 15.38%

G & J Moore - 18 winners - 17.14%

R Hannon - 17 winners - 13.6%

William Haggas - 15 winners - 17.44%

R M Beckett - 15 winners - 15.15%

Goodwood Most Successful Jockeys in the Last 3 Years

Tom Marquand - 19 winners - 15.08%

Oisin Murphy - 18 winners - 17.31%

William Buick - 17 winners - 20.48%

Hector Crouch - 13 winners 15.66%

R Havlin - 11 winners - 21.15%

Best Outsider Bets for Goodwood 2025

Given the track, trainer and jockey stats above we can narrow down some outsider bets. We will not bet anything below 5/1 and see what is left that meet the trends above.

Tuesday Best Outsider - 16:20 Goodwood - Stellar Sunrise 6/1 - WON

Matching the top trainer Andrew Balding and top Jockey Oisin Murphy Stellar Sunrise looks a cracking price to give odds on fav Naval Light a run for our money. Drawn in 12 conveniently close to Naval Light and not a concerning draw number given the straight 6f track and high draws have won last 3 in this race. Andrew Balding won this last year and Stellar Sunrise has placed in both starts as a two year old in class 3 and 4 races and an improvement would be no shock at all. Pace wise Stellar Sunrise has been slowly away both starts, but so has hot fav Naval light and the hope is they go a little too fast and Stellar Sunrise can pounce.

Wednesday Best Outsider - 13:20 Goodwood - Jupiter Ammon 10/1 - LOST

Sticking with the same Balding, Murphy trainer/jockey combo, Jupiter Ammon is a cracking price at 10/1 in what looks an open race. Drawn low over 1m 4f which really holds no advantage or disadvantage over this distance I'm hoping Jupiter Ammon improves for the step up in trip from a neck second over 10f at Sandown early this month. Progeny wise Sire New Bay has won over 1m 4f, which gives some hope the step up in trip will be right up its street.

Thursday Best Outsider - 17:30 Goodwood - Sea Force 6/1

Another who matches our top trainers and jockey trend is Sea Force from the Haggas stable and ridden by top Goodwood jockey Tom Marquand. Sea force hasn't been out the first three this season and with five places on offer we would expect Sea Force to at least place in this race. Drawn in stall 9, this is workable and we expect a strong pace so hopefully Sea Force can make his way to the front late on and take this.

We hope you have enjoyed this Goodwood 2025 preview and as first point of call we would recommend getting the best free bet you can from our list of uk free bets here