Champions League Outright Tips
It’s that time of year again and we have Champions League football beginning on 16th September.
Last year saw the first year under the new format in which the initial stage is done as a league. The league is as follows…
As you can see from the image those who finish in the blue position (Top 8) go straight through to the next round. While those in the orange position (next 16) go to the play-offs. The play-off draw is in January with those in position 9-16 drawn against those 17-24 in a two leg fixture in February.
In February they join the Top 8 of the league in the Round of 16 in March.
The league itself features 8 games per team.
From a betting perspective its wise to look at what happened last year with this new format. in 24/25 we saw this result from the league stage…
Liverpool came top with 7 wins and a draw. Followed by Barcelona with 6 wins. 4 English clubs gained a Top 8 postion. However the winners of the competition was actually PSG who finished 15th and beat Liverpool in the Round of 16. Of the Top 8, 4 went out in the Round of 16. The semi-final however featured position 2,3,4 in the league and PSG (15th).
What this indicates is that those who perform well in a league setting generally speaking do better in the knock-out stages. However the competition is not without surprises with Liverpool’s early exit and PSG win despite only being 15th in the league.
Now let’s look at the outright market to see who is this year’s favourite to win…
Source : https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner – Odds Correct 12/09/25 and subject to change. Please Gamble Responsibly 18+
It is not too surprising to see 3/4 of the top 4 in last years competition all at similar odds to win at 6/1-13/2. Holders PSG are 13/2 also. Despite making the final last year Inter Milan are out to 25/1 and 5th placed last year Atletico Madrid are 33/1 and Dortmund are 66/1 despite making the quarter final last year.
Champions League Outright Tips
Liverpool – This is not a bet for me. Domestically they have been superb last season and have strengthened their squad this year with new signing Wirtz and Ekitike but they still have defensive holes and aren’t a confident favourite given they went out in the Round of 16 last year.
Barcelona – They won La Liga last season by 4 points (Real Madrid in 2nd) and made it to the semi-final in last season’s Champions League and came 2nd in the Champions League, league stage. Like Liverpool they have some defensive issues, and like Liverpool they have an incredibly powerful attack scoring 102 goals (Liverpool netted 86, PSG 92, Arsenal 69 & Real Madrid 78) last season domestically.
PSG – PSG Surprised everyone last year with a 5-0 pasting of Inter Milan, but can they do it again? Recent history suggests this is unlikely, with successive wins in a champions league only ever achieved by Real Madrid in the last 35 years!
Arsenal – If there is one thing Arsenal has it’s an incredible defence. In a knockout tournament this is vital and I can see Arsenal progressing far in the competition.
Real Madrid – Real Madrid are Champions League specialist and you can never really write them off. Quarter finalist last year and they have won the competition more times than anyone (15). They are sure to be involved in the business end of the competition.
Recommended Tips:
Winner (E/W 2 places): Barcelona at 6/1 @ Bet365 (Odds correct at 14:14 17/09/25 and subject to change, Please Gamble Responsibly 18+)
League Stage Winner: Liverpool at 6/1 @ Bet365 (Odds correct at 14:14 17/09/25 and subject to change, Please Gamble Responsibly 18+)
Top 8 Finish in League Stage 5-fold: Arsenal, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG at 3.59/1 @ Bet365
(Odds correct at 14:14 17/09/25 and subject to change, Please Gamble Responsibly 18+)