In recent times political betting has become a staple of the online betting world.

But should you ever bet on politics and if so how do you do it?

Firstly whether or not you bet on politics is as much a personal choice as who you bet for.

In theory there should be no reason why you cannot research politics just as you would a sport such as football for sports betting.

A popular market in politics betting currently is “Next UK General Election – Most Seats”.

The odds are as follows on Oddschecker.com(odds subject to change):

With a market like this set in the future a lot can happen between now and when the general election takes place. The next election is currently scheduled on of before 15 August 2029. A lot can happen between now and then so placing a bet on a market like this involves considerable risk.

To make the best bet possible it makes sense to research the market you are betting on. To understand why a party may be favourite to win the most seats, the most valuable information is polls. Polls give data on a leaders popularity or people’s voting intention so they are often the most reliable information in politics to predict a future leader.

Generally Yougov should be the main polling site you use, but read the newspapers as they will all be reporting various data to back up their articles with links you can follow to research.

An interesting market currently is the Exit Date market for Keir Starmer.

The odds are as follows on Oddschecker.com(odds subject to change):

Those who follow politics will be more than aware of Keir Starmer’s currently unpopularity.

It is no surprise to see this headline currently in the guardian newspaper…

The yougov poll below gives his current popularity levels. An overwhelming 76% of people think he’s doing badly, only 15% think he’s doing a good job.

Even when we control for Labour voters we still get 60% think he’s doing badly and only 15% think he’s doing well.

This data shows that a trend amongst the general public even isolated to just Labour voters that indicate that Keir Starmer is not up to the job.

If we look at previous resignations Theresa May has a popularity rating of -49, Boris Johnson had -53, Corbyn had -55 at his lowest and Rishi had -56. Keir Starmer’s popularity is -55 according to the chart below, putting him just a point off the worse of our recent leaders (ok Liz Truss hit -70,nothing is that bad)…

Why is all of this polling important?

It is important because it shows Keir Starmer is a deeply unpopular leader even with his own Labour supporting members of the general public. He is hitting polling normally associated with a resignation or ousting which explains why he is odds on to leave in 2026. At odds of 8/11 for Keir Starmer to leave as Labour leader in 2026. This looks a safer bet than for Reform to win most seats in 2029 at 10/11.

For those seeking value you may be inclined to believe that Keir Starmer will stick it out. How long is anyone’s guess but you can get 5/1 on him being around for the election in and going 2029 or later. Likewise those optimistic enough may believe the conservative can turn things around given historical election success. They are available at 5/1 to get the most seats at the next election, which is a nice price.

Like with betting on sports, things can change or go wrong. Here are a few reasons why theses Polls/Odds could be incorrect…

1. Labour have had a tough start and have had to increase taxes. Political parties often get unpleasant taxes out the way early in the election cycle. There is a chance the outlook for Labour is very different in 2029.
2. The above can apply to Keir Starmer’s position if he can hang on. If he can, he could be around for the 2029 election.
3. Reform support could drop dramatically before 2029. With this drop could see a surge in conservative support which would change the most seats market odds dramatically. Previous political parties are often unpopular at the beginning of a new term. They could make ground over the next few years.

As you may have already gathered betting on politics is not for the faint hearted. In our opinion unless you are a political whizz kid with a knack for data it is best reserved as a fun bet for entertainment value and hopefully you get lucky.

Also the further into the future the bet your making falls the more room for error and change.

That is not to say don’t do your research and try to win the bet, but as with all betting only bet what you can afford to lose as political betting is not an exact science and nothing is certain.

If you do wish to bet on politics why not take a free bet at a bookie here who all offer political betting on a range of markets.