With the sleet falling outside my window as I write this, it is no wonder we need All-Weather racing tracks, particularly in the northern half of England.

Southwell Location

Southwell is located around 15 miles north of Nottingham. It is one of the UK’s six All-Weather racing tracks.

Before December 2021, Southwell was a fibresand track; it has now switched to Tapeta. Given this huge change to the course, you can safely ignore any statistics about Southwell you find online pre 2021.

Fibresand is a different surface as it has more kickback than poly or tapeta, so it will suit horses differently, and favours front-runners. Tapeta is a much fairer surface.

Southwell Course Quirks

The course is left-handed and flat, with a tight oval measuring around 1 mile 2 furlongs. It features a straight 5f spur for sprints and a 3f run-in from the home turn for distances on the bend (e.g. 6f & 7f furlong races). The track is very fair overall on Tapeta. If you hear someone claim Southwell suits front-runners, be sure they aren’t harking back to the old days of the fibresand surface, which obviously made a big difference. These days, hold-up horses have less of a disadvantage to win or place in a race.

Pace Bias

The general consensus at Southwell is that front-runners are still favoured. Not quite the same as the old fibresand days, but the bias remains particularly at 5f, and to a lesser extent at 6f & 7f. See Geegeez for an analysis of 2021 of this. The obvious point to make is that a 5f is a sprint! You cannot start slowly. So you ideally break from the stalls well and get to the front in order to win. I would expect some kind of front-runner bias to exist in all 5 furlong races.

Southwell Draw Bias

We examined 5f, 6f and 7f-8f from 2021-2026 on the new surface and didn’t find any significant draw bias. Other websites often use statistics from before 2021, which may suggest biases that don’t exist anymore.

5F – As this is a straight 5F, we wouldn’t really expect much of a draw bias, as there is no bend to navigate. The win rate is similar. If anything, perhaps a very slight low draw bias for your horse to win or place. Although a high draw would lose you less money.

Drawn	Wins	Runs	Win%	Plc%	IV	A/E	£1	ROI%
Low	42	429	10%	31%	1.12	0.83	£-85	-20%
Mid	38	487	8%	25%	0.89	0.76	£-200	-41%
Hi	46	532	9%	24%	0.99	0.90	£-81	-15%

Source: https://www.flatstats.co.uk/draw-stats.php

6F – The 6 furlong course bends left, so it is slightly different to the straight 5 furlong course. This time, we once again see fairly even win rates. Once again, a low draw helps your horse place more than a high draw. However, a low draw also loses the most money.

Drawn	Wins	Runs	Win%	Plc%	IV	A/E	£1	ROI%
Low	56	721	8%	29%	0.88	0.70	£-309	-43%
Mid	78	785	10%	30%	1.13	0.87	£-122	-15%
Hi	76	876	9%	22%	0.98	0.92	£-262	-30%

Source: https://www.flatstats.co.uk/draw-stats.php

7f – 8f – We have grouped distances 7f and 8f in this analysis. Once again, the win rate is split evenly. Once again, more horses placed drew low. You would lose less money, low or mid draw this time.

Drawn	Wins	Runs	Win%	Plc%	IV	A/E	£1	ROI%
Low	137	1436	10%	30%	1.07	0.90	£-403	-28%
Mid	139	1589	9%	26%	0.98	0.80	£-428	-27%
Hi	152	1759	9%	24%	0.97	0.83	£-634	-36%

Source: https://www.flatstats.co.uk/draw-stats.php

Southwell All-Weather Betting Tips

Course Form

If a horse, jockey or trainer has specific positive form on the Southwell All-Weather course (especially post-2021 Tapeta), this could indicate they may be successful at the course again. Most important is the horse’s course form, but don’t discount trainer/jockey course statistics. One stat that stood out in our research is that over the last five years, Charlie Hills (trainer) has won 25% at Southwell with a £70.89 profit to £1 stakes and a 81% ROI. Incredible. A jockey who stood out was David Allan, with 30/150 wins and a £75.43 profit to £1 stakes, which is a 50% ROI. Be sure to look at statistics specifically for all-weather racing, as Southwell also has national hunt racing.

Non-Course Form

We don’t always have the luxury of course form, particularly with younger horses. There are other pieces of form you can look at, which may also help. Southwell is a left-handed track (not 5f, as it’s a straight track), so look at horses that have performed well going left-handed; some horses don’t like it. Also, look at the horses’ form at the same distance at other Tapeta tracks (e.g. Newcastle, Wolverhampton). If they have performed well in comparable scenarios, there is a greater chance they will perform well on the Southwell all-weather track.

Draw

There isn’t a strong draw bias at Southwell, so we would recommend ignoring the draw when selecting your horses. If betting each-way, you may slightly favour a low or mid draw.

Pace

When betting on 5f and 6f races, it’s a good idea to assess how a race might pan out. We have already established that often sprints can favour front-runners, but this fact will be changed depending on which horses are in the race. With no obvious course draw bias at Southwell, you should instead assess the type of horses in the race. If you have too many front-runners fighting for the pace, this could cause a pace collapse and favour a prominent or mid division horse who quickens at the final furlong. Equally, with no front-runners, it may not be run at a true pace and favour a mid runner with a good turn of foot. Ideally, you want a front-runner or prominent horse who you know is not going to face much challenge for the lead, or be able to stalk, and then be able to see the race out on their own terms.

Final Word

Despite there being no draw bias at Southwell, you can still get an advantage at this course by focusing on the top course/distance horses and trainer/jockey stats specifically for Southwell. Do not discount pace analysis when betting on sprints. A good free guide on pace is available for every race at ATR.

Whatever you decide to bet on at Southwell. We always think it’s a good idea to check out the best free bets for UK horse racing here.