Can Betting Forecasts Help With Your Betting?
Betting is notoriously difficult to profit from. Professional gamblers are few and far between, and most people rightly conclude that betting is, first and foremost, a form of entertainment and not a serious investment opportunity.
With that said, what can we do to attempt to tilt the odds more in the punter’s favour?
Firstly, we can take advantage of free bets on offer. While each comes with its own terms and conditions that must be read carefully, there is no denying that a free bet tilts the odds more in the punter’s favour than without using free bets.
To find reputable free bets at bookmakers we know and trust, use this free bets list.
Secondly, bet systematically. While the bookmaker never really loses because they have a margin built into the odds they provide, millions still gamble in the hope of winning a bet. With the desire to “beat the bookmaker” comes many forms of systematic approaches to identify good bets.
Some people like to follow tipsters, but others, rather than trusting the opinion of others, prefer to use online tools and strategies to devise their own betting methods.
The website racingpost.com supplies racecards each day for the day’s races. On the card, they present the current odds of each horse, but they also display a “Betting forecast.” This is the predicted odds of each horse, which is fixed as opposed to the live odds of each horse.
Suppose the live odds are 5/1, but the forecast price is 10/1. You can either conclude that the live odds are poor value, due to them being half the price, or that it’s a popular bet and therefore is a market mover to pay attention to. This is what’s known as a “steamer.” You could also conclude that the forecast price is inaccurate or altered by other variables such as weather or non-runners, of course.
The opposite could also be true: the forecast price could be 5/1, but the live odds are 10/1. Does this mean we are getting a really good value bet because we are getting much better odds? Or does it mean this horse is poor, and the market has spotted it has little chance of winning? Again, it could have been pushed out due to other variables.
As you can see, knowing the forecast price isn’t a straightforward path to success, but it does give us something to work with to compare current odds and get an idea of how much the market has moved the horse’s chances against its true chance of winning.
At the very least, do not accept that the odds of a horse at a bookmaker are its true chance of winning. Of course, they build in their profit margin. But have they got it completely wrong? Can you make a case for a horse at odds higher than the bookies have it down, and if you can, you have spotted value and developed a strategy to gain an edge over the bookmaker.